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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds and Preview
2010-10-23
Ben Roethlisberger goes on the road for the first time this year as his 4-1 Steelers travel to Miami in search of their fifth straight win over the Dolphins. The Steelers vs. Dolphins point spread is currently Pittsburgh -3 points at Sportsbook.com.
Miami is coming off an overtime win at Green Bay, but the Fins are in for a different challenge this week. The Packers never tried to establish the run, allowing Miami to dominate the ball. Pittsburgh will run (131 rush YPG), and the Dolphins have been burned by good rushing teams, yielding 156 yards to the Vikings and 146 to the Jets.
In Week 17 last year, the Steelers won 30-24 in Miami behind three touchdown passes from Roethlisberger. In his season debut last week against the Browns, Roethlisberger was 16-of-27 for 257 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Pittsburgh’s defense has been the strongest in the league, leading the NFL in scoring defense (12.0 PPG) and rushing defense (63.8 YPG). The Steelers have also forced 15 turnovers, which ties them for the league lead with Detroit.
Dating to last season, Miami has lost four straight SU & ATS at home. Its offense has also sputtered this year with 17.8 PPG (24th in NFL) and 348 total YPG (23rd in NFL). QB Chad Henne has a mere seven touchdowns in five games. Despite placing fourth in the league with 63 targets, WR Brandon Marshall only has one touchdown this season and just 12.6 yards per catch.
The teams have met four times since 2004, with Pittsburgh going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. But this NFL betting trend from Sportsbook.com indicates that the Fins will finally beat Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Play Against - Any team (PITTSBURGH) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).<P>
After scanning some additional betting trends, the ‘over’ seems to hold value as well:
Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game. (34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*).
MIAMI is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing <=70 rushing yards/game since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 22.0, OPPONENT 25.5 - (Rating = 4*).
To check out all of the NFL Week 7 betting odds and to place your bets, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
NFL: Favre, Minnesota on NBC Sunday night football
2010-08-21
Favre-watch for the summer of 2010 is over as the 40-year old indecisive legend has chosen once again to come back for another season. For a second straight year, he will put on the pads and purple for the Minnesota Vikings, looking to take last year’s magical campaign one more step. His first action, albeit for just a series or two will come on Sunday night in San Francisco, when his club travels to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in an exhibition game. Sportsbook.com lists the hosts as 3.5-point favorites with an accompanying total of 34.5.
The biggest question in San Francisco on Sunday night won’t have anything to do with the 49ers; it’ll focus entirely on who is under center for the Vikings. The summer drama that is Brett Favre is quickly becoming an August tradition, and Favre is now back with the Vikings. Of course, the way Sage Rosenfels started the preseason, there may be no need for Favre. Rosenfels was 23-34 for 310 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota’s 28-7 win over St. Louis. The Vikings defense was equally as impressive, only allowing the Rams only 150 yards of offense.
On the injury front for Minnesota, wide receiver Percy Harvin is not expected to be in uniform following a scary episode on Thursday that saw him collapse on the practice field. Harvin, who has battled migraines throughout his life, was hospitalized overnight but is not expected to be out of the lineup for an extended period. Linebacker E.J. Henderson (leg) is a question mark for the Vikings on Sunday.
The 49ers opened the preseason in grand style with a 37-17 rout of the Colts in Indianapolis. David Carr was solid in relief of Alex Smith, connecting on 9-of-11 attempts for 98 yards and a TD. Rookie Anthony Dixon handled the load on the ground, rushing 21 times for 100 yards. The 49ers will have to take better care of the ball this week. Smith threw an INT and the team fumbled four times (losing three) vs. Indy.
After the strong defensive effort against St. Louis, one particular FoxSheets system points to Minnesota here:
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. (27-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.1%, +18.2 units. Rating = 2*).
Interestingly, the line and total for Sunday night’s game moved in exactly the opposite direction of what you would expect upon Favre’s return. After opening a 3-point favorites, the 49ers are now off the key number and laying 3.5. The total has actually dropped from the initial number of 35 to 34.5.
Look for Sunday’s contest in primetime on NBC, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
NFL: BALTIMORE vs. NEW ENGLAND (1:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-09
The second AFC Wildcard tilt is also a rematch, but not of Week 17, rather from October 4th, when the Patriots survived the Ravens in a 27-21 win at home. This week’s postseason tilt is also at Gillette Stadium, and strangely, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have moved the opening line from -4 to -3 on New England over the course of this week, despite the fact that 66% of bettors were siding with the Patriots, according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
For New England, the earlier win over the Ravens was one of eight victories in Foxboro in ‘09, as they were perfect while going 5-3 ATS, outscoring foes by an average margin of 31.2-12.9. The Patriots own a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS edge in this head-to-head, including 3-0 SU & ATS at home where they’ve outscored the Ravens 71-7. They opened as 4-point favorites for Sunday’s game. Baltimore is 3-5 on the road, and under John Harbaugh, just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS as a road dog of more than a field goal. New England has played 17 playoff games in the Bill Belichick era, going 14-3 SU & 8-8 ATS. Baltimore in on a 7-4 SU & ATS run in the postseason.
San Diego Chargers beware: The Patriots are back in the postseason after winning their seventh AFC East title in nine years and would be headed your way with a win over Baltimore on Sunday.
The Ravens, a wild-card team for a second straight year and the AFC runners-up last season, made the playoffs with a win in Oakland and return to the scene of a hard-fought 27-21 loss in Week 4. Willis McGahee powered them over the Raiders, rushing for a career-high 167 yards and three scores.
New England, which missed the playoffs a year ago despite winning 11 games with quarterback Tom Brady on injured reserve, played its best defensive football of the season in December victories over Carolina, Buffalo and Jacksonville and completed a perfect regular season at Gillette Stadium with a 35-7 waxing of the Jags in Week 16.
Last Sunday in Houston, head coach Bill Belichick hardly rested his starters and paid a steep price when wide receiver Wes Welker (NFL-leading 123 receptions for 1,348 yards and four scores) was carted off the field in the first quarter of the 34-27 defeat. With Welker out after reportedly suffering a torn ACL and MCL, rookie Julian Edelman, cut in the same mold, becomes Brady’s slot guy. Edelman caught 10 passes for 103 yards against the Texans, who scored 21 fourth-quarter points to end New England’s three-game winning streak.
Brady, said to be battling broken ribs as well as a broken finger on his throwing hand, connected with nine different receivers in Week 4 against the Ravens, as the Patriots controlled the ball for almost 35 minutes despite rushing for just 85 yards.
Baltimore’s Ray Rice gained 103 yards on 11 carries in Foxboro, and he scored seven of the team’s league-leading 22 rushing touchdowns on the season. With the air attack averaging just 174 yards over the last five games, the efforts of Rice and McGahee will probably determine whether the Ravens advance to play Indianapolis.
If this game comes down to the kickers, New England has to like its chances. Stephen Gostkowski went 26-for-31 on field-goal tries and didn’t miss any of his 47 extra-point attempts. Baltimore added Billy Cundiff midway through November, and he hit 18 of 23 field goals.
PREDICTION: The Patriots are 27-3 at home, including playoffs, since midway through the 2006 campaign. They’ve also been much more consistent than the Ravens down the stretch, so it seems as though too many signs are pointing the way of Brady’s bunch. NEW ENGLAND 27, BALTIMORE 17
NFL: GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-10-05
The game everyone has been waiting for has taken on added significance because of its importance in the NFC North race. Green Bay & Minnesota will be playing for more than just Brett Favre when they get together on Monday. Betting action figures to be brisk on this game, and Sportsbook.com has all the options for you including pointspreads, totals, and props. See the latest prices on the LIVE ODDS page.
The Vikings are 3-0, thanks in large part to Favre’s last second heroics last week. They have won five straight games as divisional hosts but are 2-3 ATS in that span. They are also just 3-9 ATS in their L12 at home overall. The Packers are 2-1, playing a second straight road game before being off next week. They are 17-7 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy and 14-5 ATS in divisional games. This head-to-head series has seen some significant trends, particularly the games in Minnesota, where dogs are on a 13-3 ATS run, and the OVER is 6-1.
The Vikings may not have ranked at the top of Green Bay’s rivalry list—that’s probably been reserved by the Bears for decades—but the addition of quarterback Brett Favre certainly catapults Minnesota at least to rival 1a. The two teams have met 95 times, and the Packers own a 49-45-1 edge, including victories in six straight. It’s unlikely, however, that any of the prior meetings had as much emotion on the line.
Minnesota’s offense is slowly rounding into form with Favre, the future Hall of Famer, running the show. Though his numbers are well below those of his Green Bay career, last week’s game-winning 32-yard touchdown pass to Greg Lewis with 0:02 to play shows he can still pinpoint a target. Adrian Peterson has been a nightmare for the Packers defense—he ran for 295 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s two meetings—and continues to punish every opponent. Back near the top of the leaderboard in rushing yards (357) and touchdowns (four), Peterson takes aim at a Green Bay defense that was torched for 141 yards by Cedric Benson in Week 2 and 117 more by Steven Jackson in last week’s 36-17 win at St. Louis. Defense, in general, is becoming an issue for Green Bay, though the most important area that needs to be addressed is on the other side of the ball.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who replaced Favre, finds himself on the move more than a taxi driver in rush hour. Sacked 12 times already, limited time in the pocket has taken the deep completion, a staple of the offense given the youth at wide receiver, almost out of the playbook. Greg Jennings, the biggest home run threat, was held without a catch by Cincinnati in Week 2, but returned to the scorebook with two grabs for 103 yards in St. Louis.
Given the state of the Minnesota run defense—it’s been nothing short of phenomenal, allowing an average of just 91.3 yards per game—most teams are often forced to move the ball through the air. But the Vikings secondary can be just as tight as the line. It allowed just 188 yards passing in last week’s 27-24 win over San Francisco.
A late bloomer in terms of his career and a late starter during the season, Ryan Grant continues to struggle on the ground, and some of the problems can be attributed to the issues with the line.
PREDICTION
The Vikings will have no trouble keeping the Packers at arm’s length, much like the sixth-grade bully picking on a third-grader. The losing skid against Green Bay ends, and a once formidable enemy stamps his allegiance as a new best friend.
MINNESOTA 33, GREEN BAY 24
NFL: SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-11-10
The first game in the Mike Singletary era did little to prove things are going to change quickly in San Francisco. The 49ers have had two weeks to think about that 34-13 pasting by lowly Seattle, the team’s fifth straight outright & ATS loss. On the other sideline however, things are changing quickly, and for the good. The Cardinals are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS and in undeniable control of the NFC West Division. They’ll be playing as a 9-1/2-point favorite in Monday night’s game, a spread that could move to double-digits by Monday’s kickoff. If so, it would be just the third time in 17 years that occurred. Oddsmakers got it right though, with Arizona pouring in 29.3 PPG and boasting a 3-0 SU & ATS record at home in which they’ve outscored opponents by 17 PPG.
If the Cardinals don't find a way to win the NFC West this year, they never will. Since the move from St. Louis to Arizona in 1988, the franchise has suffered a losing record in 17 of 20 seasons but not last year when the Cardinals closed with back-to-back wins to finish 8-8. Sun Devil Stadium didn't offer much in terms of home-field advantage during the Cardinals' first 18 years in the desert, but their new state-of-the-art venue seems to have changed that parameter for the better.
With San Francisco in town on Monday night, the Cardinals will take the University of Phoenix Stadium field for the first time in a month. The last time they were home they made NFL history, beating the Cowboys 30-24 in overtime on a recovered blocked punt in the end zone. Arizona had a bye the following week, lost 27-23 in Carolina in Week 8 and won 34-13 in St. Louis last Sunday.
A postseason berth is the goal for the Cardinals, who had to face only two returning playoff teams over their first nine games. They lead the NFC West by three games over each of their three rivals, none of which seems capable of a turnaround.
The 49ers, 2-6, are making headlines for all the wrong reasons.
San Francisco, which lost 23-13 at home to Arizona in Week 1 thanks to five turnovers, became a league spectacle two weeks ago when interim head coach Mike Singletary sent Vernon Davis to the locker room after the third quarter of a 34-13 loss to Seattle, blasted the third-year tight end in the post-game press conference and apologized to fans. The next day, Singletary benched quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan in favor of Shaun Hill. Hill led the 49ers to a pair of victories late last season and had the benefit of a bye week to help get ready for Arizona, which has allowed 218.2 yards passing per game and 16 touchdowns-most in the NFL. Hill looked relatively sharp in relief of O'Sullivan against the Seahawks and completed 15 of 23 attempts for 173 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions. This will be his first career start on the road.
PREDICTION: The season-opening matchup was evenly played, but the Cardinals aren't the same team on the road as they are at home. As for the 49ers, the jury is out whether or not Singletary's approach will make a difference. ARIZONA 24, SAN FRANCISCO 17
NFLPS: Football on Fox: Panthers-Eagles
2008-08-14
Football returns to FOX tonight when the Panthers and Eagles meet in Philadelphia at 8:00 PM ET. Both clubs boast divisional title aspirations in 2008, and much of their hopes will rest on the returns to productive health by their starting quarterbacks. The host Eagles, and Donovan McNabb, are a 3-point favorite and 65% of the early action at Sportsbook.com is on that side of the ledger. Here’s a look at the contest and some of the key betting info to consider.
Word around Eagles’ training camp is that McNabb is nearly 100% recovered from his past knee problems that he played through somewhat ineffectively last season. The franchise QB for the last decade has come under fire in the City of Brotherly Love of late, as fans have grown impatient with the team’s inability to win a Super Bowl. With Kevin Kolb, a second round draft of ’07 waiting in the wings, the pressure in on McNabb to come up big this season. However, if he’s feeling any of that pressure, you wouldn’t know it. In fact, he is as confident in himself and his team as ever:
"I still put us at the top of the NFC," McNabb told ESPN.com Monday. "I feel confident in saying that because all the best teams are pretty much in our division.”
The Eagles lost their opening preseason contest last week in Pittsburgh, 16-10. McNabb threw a TD pass in that game and Philadelphia outgained the Steelers 278-189, but still they came out on the short end of the scoreboard.
Overall, Andy Reid’s club is 9-8 SU & 7-9 ATS in the preseason at home, but they have covered three of their last four.
For the Panthers, the 2007 season was a huge disappointment, and the struggles can be directly attributed to Jake Delhomme’s early season ending injury. Carolina struggled in juggling quarterbacks and will be looking to rebuild it’s passing game behind Delhomme this season.
If anything, the Panthers have shown fight in training camp, literally. In fact, HC John Fix is hoping the well-document skirmish between WR Steve Smith and CB Ken Lucas has brought his team together. Smith will eventually serve a 2-game suspension to open the regular season but he should be in the lineup tonight. He also suffered a mild concussion last Saturday vs. Indianapolis.
Speaking of that Colts’ contest, the Panthers won 23-20 at home, piling up an encouraging 443 yards of total offense. Running back De’Angelo Williams was particularly impressive, running for 55 yards and two TD’s in nine carries.
As a road underdog in the preseason, John Fox’s teams are 6-2 SU & ATS. They also boast a strong trend vs. NFC foes:
• CAROLINA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1993. The average score was CAROLINA 20.9, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Tonight’s top StatFox Super Situation also backs Carolina:
• Play On - Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the third week of the preseason. (25-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 3*)
Tonight’s contest starts at 8:00 PM ET on FOX. StatFox Edge: Panthers