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NFL: Favre, Minnesota on NBC Sunday night football
2010-08-21
Favre-watch for the summer of 2010 is over as the 40-year old indecisive legend has chosen once again to come back for another season. For a second straight year, he will put on the pads and purple for the Minnesota Vikings, looking to take last year’s magical campaign one more step. His first action, albeit for just a series or two will come on Sunday night in San Francisco, when his club travels to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in an exhibition game. Sportsbook.com lists the hosts as 3.5-point favorites with an accompanying total of 34.5.
The biggest question in San Francisco on Sunday night won’t have anything to do with the 49ers; it’ll focus entirely on who is under center for the Vikings. The summer drama that is Brett Favre is quickly becoming an August tradition, and Favre is now back with the Vikings. Of course, the way Sage Rosenfels started the preseason, there may be no need for Favre. Rosenfels was 23-34 for 310 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota’s 28-7 win over St. Louis. The Vikings defense was equally as impressive, only allowing the Rams only 150 yards of offense.
On the injury front for Minnesota, wide receiver Percy Harvin is not expected to be in uniform following a scary episode on Thursday that saw him collapse on the practice field. Harvin, who has battled migraines throughout his life, was hospitalized overnight but is not expected to be out of the lineup for an extended period. Linebacker E.J. Henderson (leg) is a question mark for the Vikings on Sunday.
The 49ers opened the preseason in grand style with a 37-17 rout of the Colts in Indianapolis. David Carr was solid in relief of Alex Smith, connecting on 9-of-11 attempts for 98 yards and a TD. Rookie Anthony Dixon handled the load on the ground, rushing 21 times for 100 yards. The 49ers will have to take better care of the ball this week. Smith threw an INT and the team fumbled four times (losing three) vs. Indy.
After the strong defensive effort against St. Louis, one particular FoxSheets system points to Minnesota here:
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. (27-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.1%, +18.2 units. Rating = 2*).
Interestingly, the line and total for Sunday night’s game moved in exactly the opposite direction of what you would expect upon Favre’s return. After opening a 3-point favorites, the 49ers are now off the key number and laying 3.5. The total has actually dropped from the initial number of 35 to 34.5.
Look for Sunday’s contest in primetime on NBC, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
NFL: BALTIMORE vs. NEW ENGLAND (1:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-09
The second AFC Wildcard tilt is also a rematch, but not of Week 17, rather from October 4th, when the Patriots survived the Ravens in a 27-21 win at home. This week’s postseason tilt is also at Gillette Stadium, and strangely, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have moved the opening line from -4 to -3 on New England over the course of this week, despite the fact that 66% of bettors were siding with the Patriots, according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
For New England, the earlier win over the Ravens was one of eight victories in Foxboro in ‘09, as they were perfect while going 5-3 ATS, outscoring foes by an average margin of 31.2-12.9. The Patriots own a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS edge in this head-to-head, including 3-0 SU & ATS at home where they’ve outscored the Ravens 71-7. They opened as 4-point favorites for Sunday’s game. Baltimore is 3-5 on the road, and under John Harbaugh, just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS as a road dog of more than a field goal. New England has played 17 playoff games in the Bill Belichick era, going 14-3 SU & 8-8 ATS. Baltimore in on a 7-4 SU & ATS run in the postseason.
San Diego Chargers beware: The Patriots are back in the postseason after winning their seventh AFC East title in nine years and would be headed your way with a win over Baltimore on Sunday.
The Ravens, a wild-card team for a second straight year and the AFC runners-up last season, made the playoffs with a win in Oakland and return to the scene of a hard-fought 27-21 loss in Week 4. Willis McGahee powered them over the Raiders, rushing for a career-high 167 yards and three scores.
New England, which missed the playoffs a year ago despite winning 11 games with quarterback Tom Brady on injured reserve, played its best defensive football of the season in December victories over Carolina, Buffalo and Jacksonville and completed a perfect regular season at Gillette Stadium with a 35-7 waxing of the Jags in Week 16.
Last Sunday in Houston, head coach Bill Belichick hardly rested his starters and paid a steep price when wide receiver Wes Welker (NFL-leading 123 receptions for 1,348 yards and four scores) was carted off the field in the first quarter of the 34-27 defeat. With Welker out after reportedly suffering a torn ACL and MCL, rookie Julian Edelman, cut in the same mold, becomes Brady’s slot guy. Edelman caught 10 passes for 103 yards against the Texans, who scored 21 fourth-quarter points to end New England’s three-game winning streak.
Brady, said to be battling broken ribs as well as a broken finger on his throwing hand, connected with nine different receivers in Week 4 against the Ravens, as the Patriots controlled the ball for almost 35 minutes despite rushing for just 85 yards.
Baltimore’s Ray Rice gained 103 yards on 11 carries in Foxboro, and he scored seven of the team’s league-leading 22 rushing touchdowns on the season. With the air attack averaging just 174 yards over the last five games, the efforts of Rice and McGahee will probably determine whether the Ravens advance to play Indianapolis.
If this game comes down to the kickers, New England has to like its chances. Stephen Gostkowski went 26-for-31 on field-goal tries and didn’t miss any of his 47 extra-point attempts. Baltimore added Billy Cundiff midway through November, and he hit 18 of 23 field goals.
PREDICTION: The Patriots are 27-3 at home, including playoffs, since midway through the 2006 campaign. They’ve also been much more consistent than the Ravens down the stretch, so it seems as though too many signs are pointing the way of Brady’s bunch. NEW ENGLAND 27, BALTIMORE 17
NFL: GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-10-05
The game everyone has been waiting for has taken on added significance because of its importance in the NFC North race. Green Bay & Minnesota will be playing for more than just Brett Favre when they get together on Monday. Betting action figures to be brisk on this game, and Sportsbook.com has all the options for you including pointspreads, totals, and props. See the latest prices on the LIVE ODDS page.
The Vikings are 3-0, thanks in large part to Favre’s last second heroics last week. They have won five straight games as divisional hosts but are 2-3 ATS in that span. They are also just 3-9 ATS in their L12 at home overall. The Packers are 2-1, playing a second straight road game before being off next week. They are 17-7 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy and 14-5 ATS in divisional games. This head-to-head series has seen some significant trends, particularly the games in Minnesota, where dogs are on a 13-3 ATS run, and the OVER is 6-1.
The Vikings may not have ranked at the top of Green Bay’s rivalry list—that’s probably been reserved by the Bears for decades—but the addition of quarterback Brett Favre certainly catapults Minnesota at least to rival 1a. The two teams have met 95 times, and the Packers own a 49-45-1 edge, including victories in six straight. It’s unlikely, however, that any of the prior meetings had as much emotion on the line.
Minnesota’s offense is slowly rounding into form with Favre, the future Hall of Famer, running the show. Though his numbers are well below those of his Green Bay career, last week’s game-winning 32-yard touchdown pass to Greg Lewis with 0:02 to play shows he can still pinpoint a target. Adrian Peterson has been a nightmare for the Packers defense—he ran for 295 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s two meetings—and continues to punish every opponent. Back near the top of the leaderboard in rushing yards (357) and touchdowns (four), Peterson takes aim at a Green Bay defense that was torched for 141 yards by Cedric Benson in Week 2 and 117 more by Steven Jackson in last week’s 36-17 win at St. Louis. Defense, in general, is becoming an issue for Green Bay, though the most important area that needs to be addressed is on the other side of the ball.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who replaced Favre, finds himself on the move more than a taxi driver in rush hour. Sacked 12 times already, limited time in the pocket has taken the deep completion, a staple of the offense given the youth at wide receiver, almost out of the playbook. Greg Jennings, the biggest home run threat, was held without a catch by Cincinnati in Week 2, but returned to the scorebook with two grabs for 103 yards in St. Louis.
Given the state of the Minnesota run defense—it’s been nothing short of phenomenal, allowing an average of just 91.3 yards per game—most teams are often forced to move the ball through the air. But the Vikings secondary can be just as tight as the line. It allowed just 188 yards passing in last week’s 27-24 win over San Francisco.
A late bloomer in terms of his career and a late starter during the season, Ryan Grant continues to struggle on the ground, and some of the problems can be attributed to the issues with the line.
PREDICTION
The Vikings will have no trouble keeping the Packers at arm’s length, much like the sixth-grade bully picking on a third-grader. The losing skid against Green Bay ends, and a once formidable enemy stamps his allegiance as a new best friend.
MINNESOTA 33, GREEN BAY 24
NFL Conference Championship Trends
2009-01-15
We’ve reached the NFL’s version of the “Final Four”. Just a pair of teams from each conference are left to duke it out for a trip to Tampa Bay and Super Bowl XLIII on February 1st. Who will it be though, Arizona or Philadelphia from the NFC, Baltimore or Pittsburgh representing the AFC? I’m here to see if we can predetermine that fate by looking at some past trends from the conference championship game action.
Just like the past two weeks’ articles dealing with the wildcard and division rounds, I’ll again be looking at past pointspreads and totals, home/road dichotomy, and providing an update on the angles focusing on statistics of teams heading into their playoff games. You’ll notice that I trimmed it down a bit too, offering up only the angles that have remained successful or have qualifying plays for Sunday. At the end, look for the handy chart of past Conference Championship games to dig up anything I may have missed or to compare similar past matchups to this year’s games.
General Conference Championship Round Trends
Visitors swept the ATS action for the first time since ’02 in last year’s conference title games. Not coincidentally, the combined pointspreads for the games of ’08, favorites by 21-1/2 points, marking the first time since the ’01-02 season that figure reached 20 or more. In general, home field advantage has meant very little once the teams reach this round, as since ’93, home teams are just 18-14 SU for 56%, the lowest winning percentage of any playoff round. Here are some other tidbits that could help you prepare for Sunday’s games:
* The Championship Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the highest scoring games in recent years as the last 14 contests have seen an average of 46.9 PPG scored. In that span, the OVER is on a strong run of 10-3-1, for 76.9%.
* The past 10 conference title games with totals set at 46 or higher have seen 8 OVER’s, 2 UNDER’s.
* NFC title games have been solid OVER bets, 11-4-1 since ’93.
* The road team leads the pointspread ledger in the conference championship round, 17-14-1 ATS since ’93.
* When a road team is favored in the conference championship round, it is nearly always successful lately, 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS since ’93. Similarly, when the road team has an equal or better record, that team is 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS.
* Road teams that have won 14 or more games on the season, including playoffs, boast a 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS record in the championship round.
* Favorites of 9-1/2 points or more in conference title games are just 5-3 SU & 1-7 ATS in their L8 opportunities.
* Home favorites of 9-points or less are more successful than those laying more points, going 12-7 SU & ATS since ’93.
* In past conference championship games without double-digit pointspreads, the straight up winner is 24-0-1 ATS since ’93. In other words, for Sunday, if you pick the underdog, play the money line, if you side with the favorite, take comfort in laying the points.
* Road team wins have been far more common in the AFC, with eight in the past 16 conference championship games. Those visitors are also 9-6-1 ATS. In the NFC, home teams own a 10-6 SU record with an 8/8 split on the Vegas number.
* Including Green Bay’s loss a year ago, championship game home teams that are not #1 seeds are just 3-5 SU & 2-5-1 ATS since ’93.
* Non-divisional winners, or true “wildcard teams” boast an impressive 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS record in their L10 times reaching the conference championships. In this decade, they are 4-1 SU & ATS with four OVER’s on the total as well.
* Home Favorites of <=9.5 or dogs with 2+ more regular season wins than their opponent are 6-3 ATS in the championship round.
* The secret to the road underdog upset in the championship round has been defense. In these games, the home teams are being held to just 14.4 PPG by visitors that had been allowing 16.7 PPG. In other words, good defensive road teams are most capable of pulling upsets. In fact, road teams allowing less than 20 PPG on the season are 16-8-1 ATS.
* Compare the road upset trend to that of games won by the home team, in which the average score has been 30.1-15.9. In fact, 23 points is the magic number for home team success in the conference championships. In games where they score 23 or more, they are 14-2 SU & 13-3 ATS (81%) since ‘93. In games where home teams don’t reach 23 points, they are an awful 4-12 SU & 1-14-1 ATS (7%)!
* For the road team in the championship round, success hinges on the modest 16-point mark. Those scoring 16 or more are 13-7 SU & 14-5-1 ATS, those producing 15 or less are 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS
* Unlike the Wildcard & Divisional Rounds, the road team’s scoring is a better indicator of totals results. In past championship games where the visitors scored 20 or more points, the OVER is 14-2 since ‘93. In games where they fail to reach 20 points, the UNDER is 10-4-1.
NFL: SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-11-10
The first game in the Mike Singletary era did little to prove things are going to change quickly in San Francisco. The 49ers have had two weeks to think about that 34-13 pasting by lowly Seattle, the team’s fifth straight outright & ATS loss. On the other sideline however, things are changing quickly, and for the good. The Cardinals are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS and in undeniable control of the NFC West Division. They’ll be playing as a 9-1/2-point favorite in Monday night’s game, a spread that could move to double-digits by Monday’s kickoff. If so, it would be just the third time in 17 years that occurred. Oddsmakers got it right though, with Arizona pouring in 29.3 PPG and boasting a 3-0 SU & ATS record at home in which they’ve outscored opponents by 17 PPG.
If the Cardinals don't find a way to win the NFC West this year, they never will. Since the move from St. Louis to Arizona in 1988, the franchise has suffered a losing record in 17 of 20 seasons but not last year when the Cardinals closed with back-to-back wins to finish 8-8. Sun Devil Stadium didn't offer much in terms of home-field advantage during the Cardinals' first 18 years in the desert, but their new state-of-the-art venue seems to have changed that parameter for the better.
With San Francisco in town on Monday night, the Cardinals will take the University of Phoenix Stadium field for the first time in a month. The last time they were home they made NFL history, beating the Cowboys 30-24 in overtime on a recovered blocked punt in the end zone. Arizona had a bye the following week, lost 27-23 in Carolina in Week 8 and won 34-13 in St. Louis last Sunday.
A postseason berth is the goal for the Cardinals, who had to face only two returning playoff teams over their first nine games. They lead the NFC West by three games over each of their three rivals, none of which seems capable of a turnaround.
The 49ers, 2-6, are making headlines for all the wrong reasons.
San Francisco, which lost 23-13 at home to Arizona in Week 1 thanks to five turnovers, became a league spectacle two weeks ago when interim head coach Mike Singletary sent Vernon Davis to the locker room after the third quarter of a 34-13 loss to Seattle, blasted the third-year tight end in the post-game press conference and apologized to fans. The next day, Singletary benched quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan in favor of Shaun Hill. Hill led the 49ers to a pair of victories late last season and had the benefit of a bye week to help get ready for Arizona, which has allowed 218.2 yards passing per game and 16 touchdowns-most in the NFL. Hill looked relatively sharp in relief of O'Sullivan against the Seahawks and completed 15 of 23 attempts for 173 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions. This will be his first career start on the road.
PREDICTION: The season-opening matchup was evenly played, but the Cardinals aren't the same team on the road as they are at home. As for the 49ers, the jury is out whether or not Singletary's approach will make a difference. ARIZONA 24, SAN FRANCISCO 17
NFL - Cleveland @ Arizona
2007-11-30
It’s losses like that at home to San Francisco that keeps experts from taking Arizona seriously. For Cleveland meanwhile, it’s about time that everyone starts taking notice. The Browns own the final playoff spot in the AFC and don’t face a team with a winning record the rest of the way.
At 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS, Cleveland is a real threat to win at least 10-games, despite having played one of the tougher schedules in the NFL. On Sunday, HC Romeo Crennel’s team makes its first trip to Arizona since 2000. Cleveland has won both of its games vs. the NFC in ’07. The Cardinals are 3-2 SU & ATS at home and on a run of 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS against the AFC. They also boast a solid 6-0 ATS mark in their L6 second half games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more PYPG.
The Browns should rank as a serious contender and team to watch for all NFL fans, sitting at an impressive 7-4 SU and an even more impressive 9-2 ATS. The juggernaut offense continues to enjoy the efforts of a revamped and powerful offensive line, allowing QB Derek Anderson the time needed to utilize great receiving talents such as WRs Braylon Edwards and Joe Jurivicius as well as TE Kellen Winslow, all having banner seasons. Getting the D on track would help, but averaging nearly 30 points per game has the Browns sitting pretty.
The Cardinals are starting to reach the potential many felt they could achieve after early struggles left questions that may now be finding answers. An improving offensive line has helped RB Edgerrin James become a viable threat once again while veteran QB Kurt Warner enjoys yet another swan song as a team leader managing prolific WR talents, including Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. A dense choke full of youth is also starting to come into their own, rounding what could be a charge towards the playoffs for the Cardinals.
Keys to the Game
Both teams have averaged over 25 carries a game which has kept the opposition honest. Both Derek Anderson and Kurt Warner have resurrected careers that were presumed relegated to backup duty. Both are in true playoff contention for the first time since the Clinton administration. This battle should bring a higher total and the Browns are at there amplitude when numbers 40 or higher bring a 21-4 ATS record. The Cardinals long history of failure has them at 1-7 ATS off three straight victories.
Trends
~ Cleveland is 15-1 ATS when they commit two or fewer turnovers the L2 years.
~ These teams are a combined 18-3 ATS when they score 20 or more points.